The "Close Up" Game Problem in SFIV

This is my opinion, please agree or disagree with me as you wish.  I am going to try to present my argument with facts examples, and some light mathematics.

Let me preface this with the opinion of a respected player, Mike Ross, this is our conversation about this exact topic:

Sheil is the Man: Hey Mike I wanted to ask you something about 4

Sheil is the Man: if you have time.

The GreaterForce: yeah

The GreaterForce: watup

Sheil is the Man: I'm having a real hard time with the closeup blockstring game

Sheil is the Man: I kind of figured it out mathematically

Sheil is the Man: And no matter what you do it's a gamble in favor of the aggressor

Sheil is the Man: every time.

Sheil is the Man: Like lets say Ryu is up in my ass doing low short blockstring, dash+throw shenanigans

Sheil is the Man: What can you do really besides throw out a reversal and hope he's not going to bait it, or tech the throw.

The GreaterForce: nothing

The GreaterForce: LOL!

The GreaterForce: hahaha

The GreaterForce: seriously

Sheil is the Man: Fuckin hate this game

The GreaterForce: its so stupid

The GreaterForce: yeah

The GreaterForce: im sure u've tried it all

The GreaterForce: and it all fails

The GreaterForce: u just gotta react

Sheil is the Man: Pretty much.

The GreaterForce: to their shit

Sheil is the Man: God, so when you're getting RTSD'd

Sheil is the Man: you are like, up against the odds every time

Sheil is the Man: And if you play somebody with no crossup defense (Abel) its a wrap.

The GreaterForce: yes

The GreaterForce: correct

Depending on your style, this might be a boon or a bane.  For me, it is definitely the latter.  The issue is two-fold: No other Street Fighter game has so greatly rewarded the tactics of close low jabs and shorts, and no other SF game has made standing crossups so viable.  Sure, this style of game has been prevalent since the first ever "short short super" from Ken in Super Turbo or DeeJay's crossup trick, but each character had reasonable means to get around it.

In Street Fighter 4 the zoning game is a lot different due to the way your opponents are going to attack.  A lot of players will come out with guns blazing, trying to focus and dash up to get that range, from what I've seen it's becoming the dominant tactic for many of the characters.  Focus/Saving allows a great deal of mobility on the ground, similar to the parry, but coupled with the difference in SF3 and 4 it becomes a more worthwhile tactic.

I'm going to simplify the numbers to make things easier:

Picture the scenario:  you're Sagat fighting against a strong Ryu player, he's got range on you and he can do low short low short low jab etc into combo or dash up throw,  that string and then cross you up, or block and bait.  Let's assume that if he lands the combo you will take anywhere from 15-25% damage (depending on distance and meter etc), if he throws it does around 10%, and if he blocks and baits you will eat the same combo in a punish, or if he lands the crossup you will take the combo.  Your options against a tight blockstring are 1) Get out a Tiger Uppercut, 2) Break the throw or 3) try to push back with your own block string.  Lets say the Tiger Uppercut will do 15% damage when successful, and Teching obviously does no damage.

Anyway, the Ryu player has 4 damaging options: 3 where he will get 15-25% damage or lets say the two combos average out to about 20% (15+25/2=20) and one where he will get 10% damage so if we add these situations together and divide by 4 (situations)  his damage potential for this mixup game is around 17.5%. 

Your options are as such:  Block and try to tech which does no damage, uppercut for 15 percent on the block string or crossup, or try to make them block which can hit sometimes but I am not going to go into that right now cause it would be way beyond the scope of what I'm trying to do here. (we'd need ratios of hit and block)  Let's disregard that, I might take it up later.  So with the 3 viable solutions we have 2 with a damage potential of 15 and one with a damage of 0. (the tech)  The sum of the defender's outcome is about 15+15+0/3= 10%.  

At the very best you lose 7.5% damage on average to Ryu's options.  This is assuming that your execution is pretty strong as well.

Obviously there is a lot I haven't taken into account because the numbers would be too cumbersome, but overall the attacker has much the advantage.  Some characters can warp out, some have very poor crossup defense so the numbers adjust accordingly.  If you're playing certain characters with little anti air defense or a poor reversal you're in a bit of trouble.